Free-Fallin' (The Clinton Campaign)

With less than a month until the New Hampshire primary, a new poll released this morning by WMUR & CNN shows that Hillary Clinton has lost her lead in New Hampshire.  You can read the details here, but the bottom line is, Clinton and Obama are in a statistical tie for first place.

There will be lots of punditry chatter about this news in the coming weeks.  Expect to hear stories of the Dean collapse in 2004, prospects raised about Clinton Comeback Kid II (just like Bill in '92), and expectations raised for Iowa caucuses that are only three weeks away.

However it's spun by the chattering media-types, this is obviously bad news for the campaign but hardly surprising news to anyone in New Hampshire.  Though they've locked up nearly every major endorsement in the Granite state among elected officials, often with a lot of arm-twisting, the Clinton campaign failed to get the support of newest members of the Democratic leadership in the state -- Congressman Paul Hodes and Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter.  To their credit, both Hodes and Shea-Porter resisted the inevitability siren issuing from the Clinton camp.  They made-up their own minds and endorsed Obama instead.  Hodes made his decision this summer, and Carol Shea-Porter announced her support yesterday for the man who still calls Illinois home.

So, at first glance, it might seem like New Hampshire voters are following the lead of their Congressional representatives, and making decisions for themselves rather than follow the herd.

But then again, maybe it's more simple than that.  Maybe there is no news here.  My sense is that Hillary never really had a lead in New Hampshire.  Here's why.  As HIllary's so-called lead grew to more than 20 points in New Hampshire, a lot of Democrats I know (and some I barely knew) kept asking me how this was possible.  Like me, many of these primary voters were not prepared to vote for Senator Clinton.  They respect her, but on a variety of issues -- the health care debacle in '92, her 2002 Iraq war vote followed by years of defending the war and its conduct until she entered the Presidential race, her arrogance and sense of entitlement generally, as well as desire to see someone other than a Bush or Clinton in the White House after 20 years of nothing but -- these Democratic voters were clearly saying that Hillary Clinton would not get their vote.

And judging by these comments, my sense was that the majority of Democratic and independent voters in New Hampshire did not support Clinton.  Of those who did, rarely did I ever find anyone passionately in love with campaign.  Her staff in the Granite State are excellent, and the electeds behind her are very capable people, too.  But I did not sense passion in the grassroots of the Granite State for Hillary Clinton.  If anything, it seemed more like the enthusiasm found for yet another franchise blockbuster movie (e.g., Star Wars 9:  Return to the Bridge to the Future).

In the details of a poll released last week by USA Today, there is a hint of statistical confirmation to my hunch.   The first question in the poll asked, "Please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion   of these people...." and then proceeded to ask about each candidate.  As the pictures to the right show, among the Democratic front-runners, Clinton's unfavorably rating was worst.  In fact, it was horrible.  Over the course of 19 polls taken in the past year, the gap between the percentage of people who had a favorable impression of Clinton and those who had an unfavorable impression has rarely budged from being just a few points.  In some polls, her unfavorable percentage exceeded her favorables.  By comparison, over the same period of time, Obama and Edwards routinely enjoyed a 10-20 point positive gap in terms of their favorability rating.

Put more simply, people like Edwards and Obama, and they don't like Hillary Clinton.  And while the professionals will tell you that does not translate into votes necessarily, I think Hillary Clinton never found a way to overcome this problem.  Attacking Obama for an essay he wrote in kindergarten did not help her cause either.

That said, I think voters in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and other early states should take their time in making a final decision.  If anything, this poll shows the race is wide open, and there's plenty of opportunity for the basic dynamics of it to change in the coming weeks.